Before a developer can build a new development, the developer must obtain a Certificate of Assured Water Supply from the Arizona Department of Water Resources (ADWR).

To obtain a certificate of AWS the developer has to prove that the projected water use by the proposed development, combined with existing water use, will not result in a decline of the water table by more than 1000 feet in 100 years.

A decline of 1000 feet in 100 years is equivalent to a decline of 10 feet per year. 

Ok . . . now consider this: 

According to the article Oro Valley is currently pumping 3 billion gallons a year and the current drop in the water table is 7 feet per year.

The article also tells us that by the year 2030 Oro Valley will be pumping 5.5 billion gallons a year.

If pumping 3 billion gallons a year results in an average drop of 7 feet per year, then it follows that pumping 5.5 billion gallons a year will result in an average drop of 12.8 feet per year. 

In other words, by the year 2030 the drop in the water table will exceed the 10 feet per year limit by about 3 feet per year.

Meanwhile, about 10 miles north of Oro Valley, Robson Communities Inc. has begun development of extensions to SaddleBrooke.  This development will add 525 homes and an 18 hole golf course to SaddleBrooke. 

About 8 miles north of Oro Valley, Sears Financial Corporation has begun developing Eagle Crest.  This development will have 975 homes.

RCI recently purchased 300 acres next to Eagle Crest and plans to build about 760 homes.

All of these developments will use water from the same aquifer that Oro Valley uses.

How did these developments, totaling 2,260 homes, get a Certificate of Assured Water Supply if the water table in the Oro Valley water table, just a few miles south, is projected to drop at a least 12.8 feet per year by 2030?

Maybe a certificate of assured water supply doesn't really assure anything.